Show frequency across Paris, Milan, London, New York
Google Trends velocity vs 6-week baseline
Instagram & TikTok engagement signals
When economic anxiety spikes, outerwear scores rise. It happened in FW09 (shearling), FW15 (cocoon coat), and now FW26. A coat is armour. The data agrees.
Read analysis →Every 20 years, fashion returns to the countryside. The 70s had Laura Ashley. The 90s had babydoll. FW26 has Chloé. When the world feels unstable, the silhouette romanticises escape.
Read analysis →The quiet luxury cycle peaked in FW25 and is now correcting. Blazy's Chanel is the antidote — maximalism is returning, but as joy, not noise. The search data shifted before the shows did.
Read analysis →The backbone of the score. We count how many looks and how many shows featured a given garment, silhouette, or material signal across Paris, Milan, London, and New York. A trend that appeared in 40 looks across 8 shows scores far higher than one spotted in 3 looks at a single designer.
We track Google Trends data for each trend keyword over a 90-day window and calculate velocity — the rate of change in search interest in the two weeks following each show versus the prior six-week baseline. A +200% velocity spike signals real consumer intent, not just editorial coverage.
Instagram and TikTok engagement velocity measured per trend hashtag and brand handle post-show. We weight recency heavily — a spike in the 72 hours after a show matters more than aggregate likes. This component is currently being wired; scores reflect runway and search only until live.
Each component is normalised to a 0–100 scale before weighting. The composite score therefore also sits between 0 and 100. A score above 80 indicates a confirmed macro trend for the season.
FW26 covers shows from January–March 2026 across Paris, Milan, London, and New York. Copenhagen is tracked separately as an emerging signal market.
Google Trends scores are relative (0–100 within the query window), not absolute search volumes. We use 90-day windows with a 2-week recency weight.
The social velocity component (20%) is currently 0 on all items while Instagram Basic Display API access is being finalised. Scores reflect R + S only.
Initial runway counts are manually seeded from show notes. Google Vision API integration for automated look tagging is in progress.